Total Beef Cow Inventory in Us on January 1, 2017
On Jan 31, 2018 the USDA'due south National Agronomical Statistics Service (NASS) released their annual Jan one Cattle Inventory Report. The full U.S. cattle inventory was estimated to exist 94.4 million head, which was a 1% increase equally compared to 93.vii million on January ane, 2017. Since January 1, 2014 the total cattle inventory has risen from 87.7 one thousand thousand to 94.4 million head, a 7% increment. The U.S. beef cow herd increased to 41.1 1000000 head, up ii% final twelvemonth, and the dairy herd increased 1%, up to 31.7 one thousand thousand head.
While the total number of cattle in the U.S. has steadily increased, there were some classes of cattle that declined in 2017. This may be a point that expansion has peaked? Beef replacement heifers declined four%, and two year old beefiness heifers that are expected to calve in 2018 declined 5%. Dairy replacements grew one%, while bred dairy heifers declined one%. Since 2014 the U.S. beefiness moo-cow herd has increased 9%, simply 2017 was the first year since 2014 with a reduction in the number of replacement heifers being added to the U.South. herd.
Since 2014 the U.Due south. beef cow herd has increased ix%, but 2017 was the first twelvemonth since 2014 with a reduction in the number of replacement heifers being added to the U.S. herd. Source: NASS Cattle Jan 2018
Much of this increment in national inventory has not taken identify in the Southeast, however. The nautical chart below compares beef herd expansion in five Southeastern states to expansion in Texas and Oklahoma. Only Alabama has seen pregnant beefiness herd increase over the past four years. Much of the herd expansion in other parts of the land relates to long-term weather condition improvement.
So What?
Why is there so much focus and discussion nigh U.S. cattle herd expansion? Information technology is the quondam economic principles of supply and need. Typically equally supply increases market prices autumn. Terminal yr was somewhat unique in that cattle prices actually improved later in the yr, fifty-fifty though there were more than cattle to sell. The bones reason was the consign and domestic demand improved as the economic system improved. As supply continues to increment, many experts are predicting lower returns for cow-calf producers with each increase in supply. Randy Bloch, Cattle Fax CEO recently shared his all-time estimates for 2018 at the NCBA Convention in Phoenix, Arizona. CattleFax expects the national average toll for a 550 pound weaned steer in 2018 to be $i.58 per pound with a range of $ane.80 this spring to a low of $1.35 this autumn. Call back that Southeastern cattle are discounted due to freight going west, so these predictions don't straight relate to local prices. He also said, " 2018 will be the largest beef production year in our history. That will build every bit we become into the stop of the decade ." As supply increases, prices will adjust, unless in that location is an equal increase in domestic or export demand.
The Bottom Line
Cow-dogie ranchers will demand to find ways to reduce costs and be even more than efficient in the years ahead to remain profitable. As the U.Southward cattle herd continues to expand, market prices will continue to fall, unless demand increases significantly. Eventually these lower prices will force herd liquidation, but it may take a while. Expansion appears to be slowing down, but the herd is nonetheless very large compared to four years ago.
So as a cow-calf rancher what should you do to fine-melody your management? This is the exact focus of the Northwest Florida Beefiness Conference & Trade Bear witness that was held on Wed, February 14, 2018 in Marianna. V experts shared ideas to make suggestions on how moo-cow-calf ranchers tin reduce costs or improve the efficiency of their operations. For more information, use the following link:
Highlights, Presentations, and Determination Aids from the 2018 Northwest Florida Beefiness Briefing
Sources used for the data in this commodity include:
SSN: 1948-9099 USDA Cattle January 2018
Highlights from CattleFax's 2018 Outlook Seminar
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Jackson County Extension Director, Livestock & Forage Agent
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Source: https://nwdistrict.ifas.ufl.edu/phag/2018/02/09/us-cattle-herd-expansion-slows-but-continues-through-2017/
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